Liquidation Value: Heuristic Formula.

September 8, 2024

When evaluating a company's worth, especially in scenarios where its future as a going concern is uncertain, analysts often turn to the liquidation value. This measure provides a baseline of what might be salvaged if the business were to cease operations and sell off its assets. Here's a straightforward breakdown of how to calculate it and why it's an essential tool for conservative estimates:

The formula for calculating liquidation value looks like this:

Liquidation Value = Cash
                    + (0.9 × Short-Term Investments)
                    + (0.8 × Net Receivables)
                    + (0.5 × Inventory)
                    + (0.5 * PPE) -
                    - Total Liabilities

Whereby:

  • Cash: Taken at full value since it's immediately accessible.
  • Short-Term Investments: Discounted by 10% to account for potential market fluctuations or quick sale losses.
  • Net Receivables: An 80% recovery rate assumes some debts might not be fully collected.
  • Inventory: Only half its book value is considered, reflecting the difficulty in selling inventory at full price, especially under duress.
  • Total Liabilities: These are subtracted in full, representing all the debts that need settling.
  • *PPE: Property, Plant, and Equipment. It is a significant asset category for many companies, especially those in manufacturing, real estate, or other capital-intensive industries. In a liquidation scenario, these tangible assets often have substantial value, even if sold at a discount.

Why Use This Formula?

This formula provides a 'floor' value for a company, useful for investors who want to know the worst-case scenario. It's particularly relevant for distressed companies or during bankruptcy proceedings.

By focusing on tangible assets and their realizable values, it helps in assessing the risk associated with investment or credit extension. If a company's market value is close to or below its liquidation value, it might signal financial trouble.

Value investors might use this to find companies undervalued by the market, where even in liquidation, there might be a profit margin.

Limitations

Keep in mind following limitations when using this formula:

  • Conservatism: In some industries, inventory might not depreciate so drastically upon liquidation, especially if it's unique or in high demand. The same principle holds true for Property, Plant, and Equipment (PPE), as exemplified by Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs). In these cases, although buildings are subject to depreciation in accounting records, their actual market value often increases over time.

  • Static View: It doesn't account for potential operational improvements or future cash flows, which might increase the company's value if it continues operating.

  • Market Conditions: The discounts applied are estimates and might not reflect current market conditions or the urgency of sale, which could significantly alter realizable values.

  • Intangible Assets: This formula largely ignores intangibles like brand value, patents, or customer lists, which might still hold value in a sale. So it's not ideal for valuing a going concern or for industries where the primary value isn't in physical assets (like tech companies with significant value in software).

  • Operational Costs: It doesn't directly factor in the costs associated with the liquidation process itself, like legal fees or employee severance.

  • Asset Specificity: Different assets might liquidate at vastly different rates than assumed here, particularly specialized or niche market products.


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